Email the author 
Correlation Between Seismicity Rates and Earthquake Return Periods in the Southern Offshore of West Java, Indonesia
Abstract
The Indian Ocean region south of Java constitutes a highly active seismic zone dominated by the subduction of the Indo-Australian plate beneath the Eurasian plate. This study investigates the seismicity parameters (a-value and b-value) using the Gutenberg-Richter law and estimates the return periods of significant earthquakes. Analyzing earthquake catalog data covering a span of 53 years, we identified the Magnitude of Completeness (Mc) and calculated frequency-magnitude distributions. The results reveal a b-value of 1.17, indicating a region characterized by high material heterogeneity and complex stress release mechanisms. Furthermore, the probabilistic return period for a magnitude 6.5 earthquake is estimated to be approximately 19.24 years. These findings suggest that while the region exhibits frequent moderate-magnitude energy release, the potential for destructive tsunamigenic events remains significant, necessitating robust hazard mitigation strategies for the southern coast of Java.
Keywords
Full Text:
PDFReferences
Alfaris, L., Gustian, D., Setyorini, R., Romli, I., Putri, A. Y. P., Herjuna, S. A. S., ... & Yuniansyah, A. N., Muhammad, AC, Umar, N., & Wali, M. (2022). Riset Operasi, 32-42.
Apriyanti, S. D., Fatmasari, N., Wijayanto, M. P., Achmad, A., & Muflihatun. (2025). Seismicity analysis of the Southern Java region (2020-2024) based on the b-value and a-value using the maximum Likelihood method. Journal of Natural Sciences and Mathematics Research, 11(2), 164–173.
Chang, Y., Wang, R., Han, P., Wang, J., Miao, M., Zeng, Z., & Hattori, K. (2025). b-Value Evaluation and Applications to Seismic Hazard Assessment. Entropy, 27(9), 958.
Daryono, M. R., Natawidjaja, D. H., Sapiie, B., & Cummins, P. (2019). Earthquake geology of the Lembang Fault, West Java, Indonesia. Tectonophysics, 751, 180-191.
Firdaus, A. N., Alfaris, L., Fitira, P. T., & Latuputty, G. (2025). Tsunami Hazard Zone In The Coastal of Pangandaran Regency. Aurelia Journal, 5(1), 167-176.
Goro , G. L., Irsyam, M., Meilano, I., & Asrurifak, M. (2024). Comparative Study of Seismic Hazard Analysis Using Classical PSHA and PSHA Method in Java Island, Indonesia. Indonesian Journal on Geoscience, 11(3), 349–363. https://doi.org/10.17014/ijog.11.3.349-363
Gutenberg, B., & Richter, C. F. (1944). Frequency of earthquakes in California. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 34(4), 185-188.
Jumadi, J., Priyono, Kuswaji D., Amin, C., Saputra, A., Gomez, C., Choy, L. K., Rohman, A., Patel, N., Sattar, F., Nawaz, M., & Wardani, K. S. (2025). Tsunami Risk Mapping and Sustainable Mitigation Strategies for Megathrust Earthquake Scenario in Pacitan Coastal Areas, Indonesia. Sustainability, 17(6), 2564. https://doi.org/10.3390/su17062564
IRIS. (2025). Incorporated Research Institutions for Seismology.
Koulali, A., Susilo, S., McClusky, S., Meilano, I., Cummins, P., Tregoning, P., Lister, G., Efendi, J., Syafi'i, M. A. (2016). Crustal strain partitioning and the associated earthquake hazard in the eastern Sunda‐Banda Arc. Geophysical Research Letters, 43(5), 1943-1949.
Marliyani, G. I., Arrowsmith, J. R., & Whipple, K. X. (2016). Characterization of slow slip rate faults in humid areas: Cimandiri fault zone, Indonesia. Journal of Geophysical Research: Earth Surface, 121(12), 2287-2308.
Prihatini, A., Indriana, R. D., Setyawan, A., & Fahmi, M. N. (2025). Seismotectonic Characteristics of the Cugenang Fault, Cianjur, West Java, Based on A-Value, B-Value, Seismic Moment and Satellite Gravity (Earthquake Data of 2008 – 2023). Sains Malaysiana, 54(8), 1889. https://doi.org/10.17576/jsm-2025-5408-02
Pusat Studi Gempa Nasional PUSGEN. (2017). Peta Sumber dan Bahaya Gempa Indonesia Tahun 2017. Bandung: Pusat Litbang Perumahan dan Permukiman, Balitbang Kementerian PUPR.
Romli, I. (2022). Artificial Intelligence. Media Sains Indonesia.
Rosalia, S., Widiyantoro, S., Cummins, P. R., Yudistira, T., Nugraha, A. D., Zulfakriza, Z., & Setiawan, A. (2021). Upper Crustal Shear-wave Velocity Structure Beneath Western Java, Indonesia from Seismic Ambient Noise Tomography. Research Square (Research Square). https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-591913/v1
Scholz, C. H. (2019). The mechanics of earthquakes and faulting (3rd ed.). Cambridge University Press.
Shearer, P. M. (2019). Introduction to seismology (3rd ed.). Cambridge University Press.
Siagian, R. C., Alfaris, L., Ahmad, G. N., Laeiq, N., Muhammad, A. C., Nyuswantoro, U. I., & Nasution, B. (2023). Relationship between Solar Flux and Sunspot Activity Using Several Regression Models. Jurnal Ilmu Fisika. Universitas Andalas, 15(2), 146-165.
Wandono, W., Ramdhan, M., Aulia, A.N., (2025). Seismic velocity structure beneath the western Java region, Indonesia, from local earthquake tomography. Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal. 10.1016/j.jvolgeores.2025.108472
Widiyantoro, S., Gunawan, E., Muhari, A., Rawlinson, N., Mori, J., Hanifa, N. R., & Putra, H. E. (2020). Implications for megathrust earthquakes and tsunamis from seismic gaps south of Java Indonesia. Scientific Reports, 10(1), 15274.
Patria, A., & Aulia, A. N. (2020). Structural And Earthquake Evaluations Along Java Subduction Zone, Indonesia. RISET Geologi Dan Pertambangan, 30(1), 65. https://doi.org/10.14203/risetgeotam2020.v30.1072
DOI: https://doi.org/10.37905/geojpg.v4i2.36433
Refbacks
- There are currently no refbacks.
Copyright (c) 2025 LULUT ALFARIS, ANDRI WAHYUDI, MARTIN ANJAR GINANJAR, UKTA INDRA NYUSWANTORO, NAZISH LAEIQ
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.
Journal of Geosfera : Jurnal Penelitian Geografi: (P-ISSN: 2962-5424, E-ISSN: 2962-5416) is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.