Koreksi Bias Statistik Pada Data Prediksi Suhu Permukaan Air Laut Di Wilayah Indian Ocean Dipole Barat Dan Timur

Mohamad Khoirun Najib; Sri Nurdiati

doi:10.34312/jgeosrev.v3i1.8259

Koreksi Bias Statistik Pada Data Prediksi Suhu Permukaan Air Laut Di Wilayah Indian Ocean Dipole Barat Dan Timur

Mohamad Khoirun Najib, Sri Nurdiati

Abstract

The IOD can be measured using the Dipole Mode Index (DMI) which is calculated based on the sea surface temperature in the Indian Ocean. Therefore, DMI can be predicted using sea surface temperature forecasting data, such as data provided by the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). However, the data still has a bias as compared to the actual data, so to get a more accurate prediction, corrected data is needed. Therefore, the aim of this study is to predict DMI based on sea surface temperature forecasting data that has been corrected for bias using the quantile mapping method, a method that connects the distribution of forecasting and actual data. The results showed that the DMI prediction using corrected data was more accurate than the DMI prediction using ECMWF data. DMI predictions using corrected data have high accuracy to predict IOD events in October-April.

Keywords

Bias Correction; ECMWF; Indian Ocean Dipole; Quantile Mapping

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DOI: https://doi.org/10.34312/jgeosrev.v3i1.8259

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