Estimasi Produksi Beras dengan Estimator Campuran Spline Truncated – Kernel di Jawa Timur

Andrea Tri Rian Dani, Fachrian Bimantoro Putra, I Nyoman Budiantara, Vita Ratnasari

Abstract


This study aims to apply a nonparametric regression model using a mixed estimator of Truncated Spline and Kernel to estimate Rice Production in East Java Province. This model combines several predictor variables, namely Harvested Area of Rice Plants, Rice Productivity, Population, and Human Development Index. The selection of the best combination of variables is based on the lowest Generalized Cross-Validation (GCV) value to obtain a stable and accurate model. The results show that the model with a combination of variables Harvested Area of Rice Plants and Rice Productivity set as Truncated Spline components with three knot points, and Population and Human Development Index as Kernel components produces a minimum GCV value of 85,504,949, RMSE of 242,723.6, and R² of 91.24%. This model successfully captures non-linear relationship patterns and provides more stable estimates. The implication of this finding is that the resulting model can be used to design more efficient agricultural policies, by considering the factors that interact dynamically in rice production.

Keywords


Mixed Estimators; Truncated Spline-Kernel; GCV; Rice Production; Nonparametric Regression

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DOI: https://doi.org/10.37905/jjom.v7i2.33379

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