APLIKASI METODE SINGULAR SPECTRUM ANALYSIS (SSA) PADA PERAMALAN CURAH HUJAN DI PROVINSI GORONTALO
Abstract
This paper aims to study the forecasting model of rainfall in Gorontalo Province and forecast it for 2022-2023. Usually, rainfall data is seasonal. In this study, we used Singular Spectrum Analysis (SSA) with the Linear Recurrent Formula (LRF) method. The result showed that the models of rainfall forecasting in Gorontalo using SSA with windows length
L=36 obtained MAPE of forecasting in out-sample was 0,029 or 2,9 %. So that SSA was very accurate in forecasting rainfall in Gorontalo Province in 2022-2023. The forecasting result showed that rainfall was relatively high generally. So, it is necessary for the government to take policies to avoid the negative impact that can be caused.Keywords
Full Text:
PDFReferences
Basari, M. S. N. and Achmad, A. I. (2021) 'Metode Singular Spectrum Analysis untuk Meramalkan Indeks Harga Konsumen Indonesia Tahun 2019', in Prosiding Statistika SPeSIA, 7(2), pp. 484-491. doi: http//dx.doi.org/10.29313/.v0i0.28777
Elsner, J. B. and Tsonis, A. A. (1999) Singular Spectrum Analysis : A New Tool in Time Series Analysis. New York : Plenum Press.
Hassani, H. (2007) 'Singular Spectrum Analysis : Methdology and Comparison', Journal of Data Science (JDS), 5(2), pp. 239-257. doi: https://doi.org/10.6339/JDS.2007.05(2).396
Irwan, Sauddin, A., and Kaimuddin, A. (2022) 'Proyeksi Produksi Padi Kabupaten Pinrang dengan Metode Singular Spectrum Analysis', Jurnal Matematika dan Statistika serta Aplikasinya (JMSA), 10(1), pp. 100-109. doi: https://doi.org/10.24252/msa.v10i1.29869
Myung, N. K. (2009) Singular Spectrum Analysis. California: University of California.
Ruhiyat, D., Andriani, D. and Kamilah, W. N. (2020) 'Forecasting Data Runtun Waktu Musiman Menggunakan Metode Singular Spectrum Analysis (SSA)', Teorema : Teori dan Riset Matematika, 5(1), pp. 47-16. doi: http://doi.org/10.25157/teorema.v5i1.3286
Sakinah, A. M. (2008) 'Akurasi Peramalan Long Horizon dengan Singular Spectrum Analysis', Kubik, 3(2), pp. 93-99. doi: http://doi.org/10.15575/kubik.v3i2.4111
Siregar, R. S. K., Prariesa, D. and Darmawan, G. (2017) 'Aplikasi Metode Singular Spectrum Analysis (SSA) dalam Peramalan Pertumbuhan Ekonomi Indonesia Tahun 2017', Jurnal Matematika Mantik, 3(1), pp. 5-12. doi: http://doi.org/10.15642/mantik.2017.3.1.5-12
Sodiqin, M. A., Sulandari, W., and Respatiwulan, (2021) 'The Application of Singular Spectrum Analysis Method in Forecasting the number of Foreign Tourist Visit to Special Capital Region of Jakarta', Jurnal Riset dan Aplikasi Matematika (JRAM), 5(2), pp. 92-102. doi: http://doi.org/10.26740/jram.v5n2
Utami, H., Sari, Y.W., Subanar, S., Abdurrakhman, A. and Gunardi, G. (2007) 'Peramalan Beban Listrik Daerah Istimewa Yogyakarta dengan Metode Singular Spectrum Analysis (SSA)', Media Statistika, 12(2), pp. 214-225. doi: http://doi.org/10.14710/medstat.12.2.214-225
DOI: https://doi.org/10.34312/jjps.v3i2.16537
Refbacks
- There are currently no refbacks.
Copyright (c) 2022 Jambura Journal of Probability and Statistics
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License.