PERBANDINGAN METODE AUTOREGRESSIVE INTEGRATED MOVING AVERAGE DAN METODE DOUBLE EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING DARI HOLT DALAM MERAMALKAN NILAI IMPOR DI INDONESIA

Abstract

As a form of purchased goods from other state’s imports have impacts both positive and negative to the states’s condition; therefore, prediction is required. Employing Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) and Holt’s Double Exponential Smoothing (DES) methods, this study intends to identify which of the methods is the most accurate to predict Indonesia’s import value.  The ARIMA method stage involved: data ploting, data stasioneriation, temporary model identification, parameter estimation, test residual assumption, and prediction. Moreover, the Holt’s DES method involved: data plotting, initial value determination, optimal parameter identification, Level L_t and Trend T_t value quantification, andprediction. The result shows that ARIMA method is the most accurate method to predict Indonesia’s import value.