Coalition Configuration and Five-Year Government Stability: Indonesia in Comparative Presidential Perspective

Mas’ud Mas’ud; Wafda Vivid Izziyana; Mutiara Apriliyani

doi:10.33756/eslaj.v8i2.37324

Coalition Configuration and Five-Year Government Stability: Indonesia in Comparative Presidential Perspective

Mas’ud Mas’ud, Wafda Vivid Izziyana, Mutiara Apriliyani

Abstract

This article examines how presidential election coalition configurations relate to government stability over five-year terms, focusing on Indonesia and comparing Brazil and the Philippines. It employs qualitative, document-based research, reconstructing coalitions through scholarly literature, electoral and constitutional legislation, and Constitutional Court decisions. Government stability is assessed through three dimensions: cabinet durability, legislative support, and executive-legislative conflict, evaluated categorically rather than through a composite index. The findings indicate that coalition size alone does not determine governing capacity. Oversized coalitions formed primarily to satisfy presidential candidacy requirements encompass broader ideological differences, increasing bargaining costs that may manifest in cabinet reshuffles and inconsistent legislative discipline. Conversely, coalitions with narrower ideological ranges and clearer executive office distributions appear to sustain legislative cooperation more consistently. Coalition behaviour also varies throughout presidential terms, with cooperation stronger initially and electoral repositioning more prominent toward the final phase. Finally, the article argues that removing Indonesia’s presidential candidacy threshold through Constitutional Court Decision No. 62/PUU-XXII/2024 changes incentives underlying oversized pre-electoral coalitions. It identifies conditions under which this institutional change may strengthen or weaken governing coherence, particularly in coalition formation, legislative coordination, and executive-legislative relations.

Keywords

Cabinet Durability; Coalition Configuration; Government Stability; Multiparty Presidentialism; Presidential Threshold

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DOI: https://doi.org/10.33756/eslaj.v8i2.37324