Prediksi Kebakaran Hutan Ibu Kota Nusantara Menggunakan Produk MODIS dengan Algoritma Regresi Linear, Gradient Boosting dan Decision Tree

Syamsul Syahab Mangun, Kusrini Kusrini

Abstract


Forest Fires in the Capital City of the Archipelago (IKN) threaten environmental sustainability and sustainable development, but accurate predictions are still hampered by the complexity of trigger factors such as weather variability and data uncertainty, so this study aims to develop a machine learning-based forest fire prediction model by utilising MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) data, including surface temperature and thermal anomalies, by comparing three algorithms namely Linear Regression, Gradient Boosting Regressor (GBR), and Decision Tree Regressor (DTR). Performance evaluation using RMSE (Root Mean Square Error) and accuracy metrics showed GBR as the best model with 98.84% accuracy followed by DTR 96.39%, while R² values close to 1.0 in both models indicated the ability to explain data variability optimally, in contrast to linear regression which showed significant limitations. Thus, these findings prove the superiority of ensemble algorithms such as GBR in handling non-linearity of forest fire data and have practical implications on its potential integration into early warning systems to improve the effectiveness of  fire mitigation around the IKN region.

Kebakaran Hutan di Ibu Kota Nusantara (IKN) mengancam kelestarian lingkungan dan pembangunan berkelanjutan, namun prediksi akurat masih terhambat oleh kompleksitas faktor pemicu seperti variabilitas cuaca dan ketidakpastian data, sehingga penelitian ini bertujuan mengembangkan model prediksi kebakaran hutan berbasis machine learning dengan memanfaatkan data MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer), termasuk suhu permukaan dan anomali termal, dengan membandingkan tiga algoritma yaitu Regresi Linear, Gradient Boosting Regressor (GBR), dan Decision Tree Regressor (DTR). Evaluasi performa menggunakan metrik RMSE (Root Mean Square Error) dan akurasi yang menunjukan GBR sebagi model terbaik dengan akurasi 98,84% diikuti DTR 96,39%, sementara  nilai R² mendekati 1.0 pada kedua model mengindikasikan kemampuan menjelaskan variabilitas data secara optimal, berbeda dengan regresi linear yang menunjukkan keterbatasan signifikan, sehingga temuan ini membuktikan keunggulan algoritma seperti GBR dalam menangani non-linearitas data kebakaran hutan dan berimplikasi praktis pada potensi integrasinya ke dalam sistem peringatan dini untuk meningkatkan efektivitas mitigasi kebakaran di sekitar wilayah IKN.


Keywords


Decision Tree Regressor, Gradient Boosting Regressor, Ibu Kota Nusantara, Kebakaran Hutan, MODIS, Regresi Linear

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DOI: https://doi.org/10.37905/jji.v1i1.30926

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