Perbandingan Metode Triple Exponential Smoothing Additive dan Additive Parameter Damped untuk Peramalan Indeks Harga Konsumen

Rohelio Yoel Wawo; Deiby Tineke Salaki; Hanny Andrea Huibert Komalig; Djoni Hatidja; Marline Sofiana Paendong; Tohap Manurung

doi:10.37905/euler.v13i1.30928

Perbandingan Metode Triple Exponential Smoothing Additive dan Additive Parameter Damped untuk Peramalan Indeks Harga Konsumen

Rohelio Yoel Wawo, Deiby Tineke Salaki, Hanny Andrea Huibert Komalig, Djoni Hatidja, Marline Sofiana Paendong, Tohap Manurung

Abstract

The purpose of this study is to compare the TES Additive and TES Additive Parameter Damped methods to forecast the Consumer Price Index (CPI) of Manado City. The data used are secondary data in the form of CPI from the Central Statistics Agency of North Sulawesi, covering the period from January 2020 to December 2023. The forecasting accuracy indicators used are Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) and Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE). The results of the analysis show that the TES Additive method has better performance in forecasting the CPI of Manado City compared to TES Additive Damped Parameter. This is because the MAPE value in the TES Additive method testing data is smaller, indicating a higher accuracy of the forecasting results. The CPI prediction for 2024 shows a stable upward trend every month. This increase is expected to be driven by economic activity that is starting to recover after the pandemic, increased public consumption, and seasonal inflation approaching religious holidays and the end of the year. The highest CPI value is predicted to reach 117.32 in December 2024.

Keywords

Consumer Price Index; TES Additive; TES Additive Damped Parameter

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DOI: https://doi.org/10.37905/euler.v13i1.30928