Model matematika penyebaran COVID-19 dengan penggunaan masker kesehatan dan karantina

Muhammad Manaqib, Irma Fauziah, Eti Hartati

Abstract


This study developed a model for the spread of COVID-19 disease using the SIR model which was added by a health mask and quarantine for infected individuals. The population is divided into six subpopulations, namely the subpopulation susceptible without a health mask, susceptible using a health mask, infected without using a health mask, infected using a health mask, quarantine for infected individuals, and the subpopulation to recover. The results obtained two equilibrium points, namely the disease-free equilibrium point and the endemic equilibrium point, and the basic reproduction number (R0). The existence of a disease-free equilibrium point is unconditional, whereas an endemic equilibrium point exists if the basic reproduction number is more than one. Stability analysis of the local asymptotically stable disease-free equilibrium point when the basic reproduction number is less than one. Furthermore, numerical simulations are carried out to provide a geometric picture related to the results that have been analyzed. The results of numerical simulations support the results of the analysis obtained. Finally, the sensitivity analysis of the basic reproduction numbers carried out obtained four parameters that dominantly affect the basic reproduction number, namely the rate of contact of susceptible individuals with infection, the rate of health mask use, the rate of health mask release, and the rate of quarantine for infected individuals.

Keywords


COVID-19; Health Mask; SIQR Model; Basic Reproduction Number; Stability of Equilibrium Point

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References


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DOI: https://doi.org/10.34312/jjbm.v2i2.10483

Copyright (c) 2021 Muhammad Manaqib, Irma Fauziah, Eti Hartati

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