Mathematical Model and Simulation of the Spread of COVID-19 with Vaccination, Implementation of Health Protocols, and Treatment

Muhammad Manaqib, Mahmudi Mahmudi, Galuh Prayoga

Abstract


This research develops the SVEIHQR model to simulate the spread of COVID-19 with vaccination, implementation of health protocols, and treatment. The population is divided into twelve subpopulations, resulting in a mathematical model of COVID-19 in the form of a system of twelve differential equations with twelve variables. From the model, we obtain the disease-free equilibrium point, the endemic equilibrium point, and the basic reproduction number (R0). The disease-free equilibrium point is locally asymptotically stable when R0 < 1 and ∆5 > 0, where ∆5 is the fifth-order Routh-Hurwitz matrix of the characteristic polynomial of the Jacobian matrix. Additionally, an endemic equilibrium point exists when R0 > 1. The results of numerical simulations are consistent with the conducted analysis, and the sensitivity analysis reveals that the significant parameters influencing the spread of COVID-19 are the proportion of symptomatic infected individuals and the contact rate with asymptomatic infected individuals.


Keywords


COVID-19; Vaccination; Application of Health Protocols; Treatment; Stability of Equilibrium Point

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DOI: https://doi.org/10.34312/jjbm.v4i1.19162

Copyright (c) 2023 Muhammad Manaqib, Mahmudi Mahmudi, Galuh Prayoga

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