Two isolation treatments on the COVID-19 model and optimal control with public education

Muhammad Abdurrahman Rois, Fatmawati Fatmawati, Cicik Alfiniyah

Abstract


This study examines a COVID-19 mathematical model with two isolation treatments. We assume that isolation has two treatments: isolation with and without treatment. We also investigated the model using public education as a control. We show that the model has two equilibria based on the model without control. The basic reproduction number influences the local stability of the equilibrium and the presence of an endemic equilibrium. Therefore, the optimal control problem is solved by applying Pontryagin’s Principle. In the 100th day following the intervention, the number of reported diseases decreased by 85.5% when public education was used as the primary control variable in the simulations.

Keywords


Mathematical Model; COVID-19; Optimal Control

Full Text:

PDF

References


Z. Wu and J. M. McGoogan, “Characteristics of and Important Lessons From the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) Outbreak in China,” JAMA - Journal of the American Medical Association, vol. 323, no. 13, p. 1239, apr 2020. DOI: 10.1001/jama.2020.2648

WHO, “Novel coronavirus,” 2020. https://www.who.int/indonesia/news/novel-coronavirus/qa-for-public

Y.-C. Wu, C.-S. Chen, and Y.-J. Chan, “The outbreak of COVID-19: An overview,” Journal of the Chinese Medical Association, vol. 83, no. 3, pp. 217–220, mar 2020. DOI: 10.1097/JCMA.000000000000027

I. Medicine, B. Health, F. Threats, A. Mack, E. Choffnes, P. Sparling, M. Hamburg, and S. Lemon, Ethical and Legal Considerations in Mitigating Pandemic Disease: Workshop Summary. National Academies Press, 2007. ISBN 9780309107693.

WHO, “Covid-19 strategy update,” 2020. https://www.who.int/publications/m/item/covid-19-strategy-update

WHO, “Pertimbangan-pertimbangan untuk karantina individu dalam konteks penanggulangan penyakit coronavirus (covid-19),” 2020. https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/searo/indonesia/covid19/who-2019-covid19-ihr-quarantine-2020-indonesian.pdf?sfvrsn=31d7cbd8_2

B. Tang, X. Wang, Q. Li, N. L. Bragazzi, S. Tang, Y. Xiao, and J. Wu, “Estimation of the Transmission Risk of the 2019-nCoV and Its Implication for Public Health Interventions,” Journal of Clinical Medicine, vol. 9, no. 2, p. 462, 2020. DOI: 10.3390/jcm9020462

Z. Feng, “Final and peak epidemic sizes for SEIR models with quarantine and isolation,” Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering, vol. 4, no. 4, pp. 675–686, 2007. DOI: 10.3934/mbe.2007.4.675

M. Tahir, S. Shah, G. Zaman, and T. Khan, “Stability behaviour of mathematical model MERS corona virus spread in population,” Filomat, vol. 33, no. 12, pp. 3947–3960, 2019. DOI: 10.2298/FIL1912947T

S. Usaini, A. S. Hassan, S. M. Garba, and J.-S. Lubuma, “Modeling the transmission dynamics of the Middle East Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus (MERS-CoV) with latent immigrants,” Journal of Interdisciplinary Mathematics, vol. 22, no. 6, pp. 903–930, 2019. DOI: 10.1080/09720502.2019.1692429

E. Soewono, “On the Analysis of Covid-19 Transmission in Wuhan, Diamond Princess and Jakarta-cluster,” Communication in Biomathematical Sciences, vol. 3, no. 1, pp. 9–18, apr 2020. DOI: 10.5614/CBMS.2020.3.1.2

J. Jia, J. Ding, S. Liu, G. Liao, J. Li, B. E. Duan, G. Wang, and R. A. Zhang, “Modeling the control of COVID-19: Impact of policy interventions and meteorological factors,” Electronic Journal of Differential Equations, vol. 2020, no. 23, pp. 1–24, 2020.

M. A. Rois, T. Trisilowati, and U. Habibah, “Dynamic Analysis of COVID-19 Model with Quarantine and Isolation,” JTAM (Jurnal Teori dan Aplikasi Matematika), vol. 5, no. 2, pp. 418–433, 2021. DOI: 10.31764/jtam.v5i2.5167

D. Prathumwan, K. Trachoo, and I. Chaiya, “Mathematical Modeling for Prediction Dynamics of the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) Pandemic, Quarantine Control Measures,” Symmetry, vol. 12, no. 9, p. 1404, 2020. DOI: 10.3390/sym12091404

M. A. Rois, “Local Sensitivity Analysis of COVID-19 Epidemic with Quarantine and Isolation using Normalized Index,” Telematika, vol. 14, no. 1, pp. 13–24, jan 2012. DOI: 10.35671/telematika.v14i1.1191

C. Yang and J. Wang, “A mathematical model for the novel coronavirus epidemic in Wuhan, China,” Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering, vol. 17, no. 3, pp. 2708–2724, 2020. DOI: 10.3934/mbe.2020148

V. P. Bajiya, S. Bugalia, and J. P. Tripathi, “Mathematical modeling of COVID-19: Impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions in India,” Chaos: An Interdisciplinary Journal of Nonlinear Science, vol. 30, no. 11, p. 113143, 2020. DOI: 10.1063/5.0021353

M. A. Rois, Fatmawati, C. Alfiniyah, and C. W. Chukwu, “Dynamic analysis and optimal control of COVID-19 with comorbidity: A modeling study of Indonesia,” Frontiers in Applied Mathematics and Statistics, vol. 8, 2023. DOI: 10.3389/fams.2022.1096141

M. A. Rois, Fatmawati, and C. Alfiniyah, “Optimal Control of COVID-19 Model with Partial Comorbid Subpopulations and Two Isolation Treatments in Indonesia,” European Journal of Pure and Applied Mathematics, vol. 16, no. 1, pp. 523–537, 2023. DOI: 10.29020/nybg.ejpam.v16i1.4666

M. A. Rois, M. Tafrikan, Y. Norasia, I. Anggriani, and M. Ghani, “SEIHR Model on Spread of COVID-19 and Its Simulation,” Telematika, vol. 15, no. 2, pp. 70–80, 2022. DOI: 10.35671/telematika.v15i2.1141

C. T. Deressa and G. F. Duressa, “Modeling and optimal control analysis of transmission dynamics of COVID-19: The case of Ethiopia,” Alexandria Engineering Journal, vol. 60, no. 1, pp. 719–732, 2021. DOI: 10.1016/j.aej.2020.10.004

S. Olaniyi, O. S. Obabiyi, K. O. Okosun, A. T. Oladipo, and S. O. Adewale, “Mathematical modelling and optimal cost-effective control of COVID-19 transmission dynamics,” The European Physical Journal Plus, vol. 135, no. 11, p. 938, 2020. DOI: 10.1140/epjp/s13360-020-00954-z

M. A. Rois, T. Wati, and U. Habibah, “Optimal Control of Mathematical Model for COVID-19 with Quarantine and Isolation,” International Journal of Engineering Trends and Technology, vol. 69, no. 6, pp. 154–160, 2021. DOI: 10.14445/22315381/IJETT-V69I6P223

Worldometer, “COVID-19 coronavirus pandemic,” 2023. https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/




DOI: https://doi.org/10.34312/jjbm.v4i1.19963

Copyright (c) 2023 Muhammad Abdurrahman Rois, Fatmawati, Cicik Alfiniyah

Creative Commons License
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License.


Jambura Journal of Biomathematics (JJBM) has been indexed by:


                          EDITORIAL OFFICE OF JAMBURA JOURNAL OF BIOMATHEMATICS

 Department of Mathematics, Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Science, Universitas Negeri Gorontalo
Jl. Prof. Dr. Ing. B. J. Habibie, Moutong, Tilongkabila, Kabupaten Bone Bolango 96554, Gorontalo, Indonesia
 Email: editorial.jjbm@ung.ac.id
 +6281356190818 (Call/SMS/WA)
 Jambura Journal of Biomathematics (JJBM) by Department of Mathematics Universitas Negeri Gorontalo is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License.  Powered by Public Knowledge Project OJS.